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William David's avatar

The substitution gap is what makes this structural rather than temporary. Fly tiers can move to stainless steel - that demand pressure eventually clears. Defense applications using tungsten in armor-piercing rounds, bunker-busters, and missile guidance systems can't make that swap. Two markets hit by the same supply shock but with completely different adaptation options. The price floor isn't set by when recreational demand normalizes. It's set by the buyers who can't buy anything else - and that category just got a lot bigger.

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